EIA is projecting that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease in the United States through the mid-2030s and then increase through 2050 across a wide variety of assumptions.
Specifically, it projects that U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions will fall to 4.5 billion metric tons (Bmt) in 2037, or 6% below the energy-related CO2 emissions in 2021, before rising to 4.7 Bmt in 2050, or 2% below 2021 levels. Projected emissions decline from 2022 to 2037 primarily as a result of decreasing carbon intensity in the electric power sector.
However, increasing emissions from natural gas and petroleum consumption growth will offset declines in emissions from coal consumption.
EIA expects the carbon intensity of transportation to remain higher than the other sectors through 2050 because of continued use of liquid fuels for most modes of travel.
Excerpt from SUN DAY Campaign‘s March 22, 2022 issue.