6. Monocrystalline technology to increase market share. Although monocrystalline technology will not threaten multicrystalline domination in the near future, IHS expects it will steadily gain share, benefiting from growth on rooftop installations, as well as increasing demand for higher-efficiency products. IHS forecasts the monocrystalline share of global cell production will increase to 27 percent in 2015, up from 24 percent in 2014.
7. Systems up to 100 kilowatts to account for 30 percent of global installations. There is potential in store for DPV in both established and emerging markets around the world. IHS forecasts distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems—i.e., those sized 100 kilowatts (kW) or smaller—to account for 30 percent of global installations in 2015, with 15.7 GW projected, up from 13.2 GW in 2014. The largest market for these installations in 2015 will be Japan, with DPV accounting for nearly 70 percent of installations. The U.S. is also expected to install more than 2.2 GW of DPV in 2015, as net-metering and third-party ownership models continue to drive this market.
8. Second quarter (Q2) halt to U.K. utility-scale PV to trigger new wave of consolidation among European Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors. The clock is running down for integrators of large-sized solar systems in Europe, with the expiration of a U.K. incentive program bringing an end to a boom in utility-scale installations and triggering a flurry of consolidation. The U.K. in 2015 will dominate the utility-scale PV landscape in Europe by installing 1.4 GW of ground-mount systems, primarily under the renewable obligation certificates (ROC) scheme.
9. Three-phase string inverters to account for one-third of global solar inverter revenue. Driven by attractive prices in key PV markets, global revenue for three-phase string inverters is forecast in 2015, to reach more than $2.2 billion, equivalent to one-third of worldwide revenue for the overall market for inverters. Estimated shipments next year of three-phase string inverters will exceed 15 GW, up 31 percent from 2014. A surge is expected in important markets like China and Japan, whose combined shipments will account for 7.6 GW of the total.
10. California in 2015 will become global leader in solar power penetration. IHS expects that by the end of 2015, California—the largest renewable power market in the United States—will attain worldwide leadership in market share of annual power generation received from solar PV. Following another year of strong utility-scale and DPV additions, solar power is expected to provide more than 10 percent of California’s annual power generation in 2015. This penetration level would push California above other leading global solar markets, such as Germany and Italy, in terms of the share of total power generation sourced from solar PV.
IHS | January 8, 2015